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Before Brexit, UK permanent residents could vote in local elections and hold office.
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Announcement to keep the Five-party alive
How the British are squaring the circle with political equality.
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Why does nobody want an impasse in Geneva?
Lute in Nicosia today ahead of the Informal Five-party.
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Euro-Turkish relations in the frame
The Cyprus problem in the give-and-take sphere of the upgrading of the Turkey-EU customs union. Erdogan went deaf regarding the Cyprus problem, but Cavusoglu responded to Michel and Der Leyen.
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Mobilisation of GCs and TCs ahead of the summit in Geneva
Concerns over Turkish claims and Anastasiades’ ways of dealing with them.
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Odysseas, leave the legal advice and if you’ve got the guts go ahead and participate in elections
Kyriakos Koushos throws the glove to the auditor general. The auditor general should stop using the institutional position he holds and the independent state Service for the pre-election needs of specific persons and party. The audit service has been transformed into a tool for DIKO.
- Analysis: Without the Guterres Framework, the Five-party will turn into a boomerang
- Scenario of manoeuvres: Lute and the unanswered questions regarding the five-party
- Guide: The entire Cyprus problem on your laptop screens
- Article-Intervention (opinion): On a federation – Centralised and decentralised
Main News
Morton: No British plan or blueprint on the table
Alithia, Haravgi, Kathimerini, Phileleftheros, Politis
Negotiations Process
OVERVIEW
In an interview with Kathimerini, UK Minister for the European Neighbourhood Wendy Morton said there is no British plan or blueprint on the table, noting that Britain only attempted to encourage both sides to show flexibility and a willingness for compromise.
Morton, who in a recent visit to Cyprus met with both leaders, said both sides must take advantage of the opportunity for a solution that is being presented through the five-party meeting, noting that a potential failure will not benefit anyone. She said the principles of a federation and political equality are the points of departure for a comprehensive solution, noting that they are broad enough to include a series of tweaks. Morton said that with creativity a solution that satisfies the concerns and interests of both sides, and that points to a future of safety and wellbeing, can be found.
Morton added that Britain’s position on Varosha is clear, noting that the area must be returned to its lawful inhabitants under UN administration, as provided by relevant UN resolutions. She said developments in Varosha are proof of the urgency of resuming settlement talks, since as long as the process remains at an impasse we will see partition becoming a permanent reality, bringing negative consequences for many Cypriots.
Politis reports that Britain is attempting to find a new balance particularly as regards the Guterres Framework and consider realistic the tabling of the Turkish side’s claim for sovereign equality. The paper also writes that in view of the friction that underlies EU-Britain relations due to Brexit, Britain isn’t favouring the involvement of the EU at the Geneva summit in an attempt to enhance its own role. In her interview with Kathimerini, Morton clarified that the decision regarding EU involvement in Geneva lies with the UN Secretary General (UNSG).
Politis reports citing a diplomatic source that talks at Geneva will primarily take place on a bilateral level, and though the coronavirus pandemic is being used as justification, the reason for this lies with UN attempts to de-emphasise the role of negotiators due to the strong positions held by the TC chief negotiator Ergun Olgun. As an example, the paper writes that during the TC leader Ersin Tatar’s meeting with the EU Foreign Policy chief Josep Borrell, Tatar initially reiterated his known positions in favour of two states and his concerns regarding halloumi, but then also took a more realistic stance regarding how the Cyprus problem could unfold, with this shift in stance quickly coming to an end once Olgun stepped into the room. Politis reports that during the meeting with Borrell, Olgun repeatedly interrupted Tatar to table Turkey’s firm positions, to the extent that Borrell had to stress to Olgun that his meeting was not with him but with Tatar.
Citing another diplomatic source, Politis reports that at this stage, no party wants to see the Geneva summit being led to an impasse. The paper writes that a current priority for the Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who is seeing the Turkish economy deteriorate along with his popularity, is a deal with the EU as regards the customs union, which would open the floodgates to billions of euros entering the country. Politis and Phileleftheros report that though Erdogan did not respond when Cyprob-related matters were raised by the chiefs of the EU Council and Commission during their recent visit to Ankara, the Turkish Foreign Minister Melvut Cavusoglu nevertheless said that if agreement is found on the matters of political equality and hydrocarbons, then 70% of the Cyprus problem would be solved. Phileleftheros reports that what the Turkish side refers to political equality, they are actually pointing to sovereign equality and two states.
Phileleftheros reports that given the current importance of the modernisation of the customs union for both Turkey and the EU, at Geneva Turkey will ensure that it comes out of the summit free of responsibilities and obligations and without committing to anything, allowing it to benefit through a positive agenda with the EU.
Politis reports during his contacts in Cyprus in late March, Deputy Political Director of the UK Foreign Office Ajay Sharma said conveyed in Geneva, Turkey is expected to explain why it believes that Cyprob can no longer be solved on the basis of a bizonal bicommunal federation (BBF), and to claim that sovereign equality and the recognition of the north must come before an agreement with the GC side on the new federal state. On the first aspect, the paper writes that Turkey will likely claim that for 50 years the GC side has failed to clarify what it means by political equality and has also failed to prove its readiness to accept the effective and equal participation of TCs in the new state. Regarding the second aspect, the paper reports that Turkey wants to ensure that even if the upcoming initiative collapses, the isolation of the TC community is terminated. Turkey also wants to ensure that the ‘TRNC’ will be safe in the event that the new state collapses in the future.
As regards the GC side’s approach in Geneva, Politis reports that emphasis will be placed on the Guterres Framework and on an acceptance of political equality as defined by the UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution 716. The paper reports that President Nicos Anastasiades is expected to highlight that agreement was reached on the issue of political equality in 2019 with the former TC leader Mustafa Akinci. Anastasiades will also seek to secure a horizon for the resumption of substantive talks but not a deadline. Alithia reports that a faithful adoption of the Guterres Framework by the GC side is the only way to prevent the five-party from turning into a boomerang, since if any point is placed up for discussion, the path is automatically opened for the Turkish side to table its own claims.
Politis reports that on Friday, Anastasiades met with the negotiating team, which he asked to prepare several scenarios on matters that are expected to be placed on the negotiating table such as political and sovereign equality, confidence-building measures (CBMs) and hydrocarbons, especially in view of the fact that companies active in the EEZ have begun to prepare for drilling operations and have received green lights from their embassies.
In an interview with Haravgi, Akinci said we cannot a positive outcome at Geneva if both sides remain firm in their publicly-declared positions. He said the GC side must convince all parties that it accepts political equality, and Turkey and the north must return to UN parameters that foresee a BBF. Regarding political equality, Akinci said this is the backbone of every type of federation. He said that in reality he and Anastasiades had agreed on this point, but said that if the GC side convinces all parties in Geneva of its honest readiness to accept political equality, this will assist in laying the groundwork for a better political climate, since it will be difficult for others to say that a federation cannot be implemented because the GC side is unwilling to share power with TCs.
Akinci, in another interview with Phileleftheros, said during the Crans-Montana talks, Turkey and the TC side had conveyed to the UNSG that they were ready to be flexible in order to reach agreement on a settlement, but Anastasiades was not ready to take the final step. After those talks and after the ‘elections’ in the north, Akinci said, a very different picture was created, in which the TC side and Turkey are pursuing a two-state solution, which Akinci said will lead nowhere, while the GC side appears to still be unwilling to fully accept all elements that make up political quality.
Akinci told Phileleftheros that there are two solution frameworks that will not be able to receive mutual agreement: the first is a solution involving a single state in which GCs rule over the TC minority, and the second is a solution involving two independent states with limited cooperation. Akinci said the only way forward is a BBF, for which in truth in-depth negotiations are no longer necessary, since he said all matters on the table have matured through the years. What is now needed is determination and political will, Akinci said.
Politis reports that the informal summit is expected to lead to a joint announcement, in which all parties will express their desire for a resumption of talks. Toward this end, deliberations among representatives will follow, in view of preparing the groundwork for a Crans-Montana-style conference within a reasonable amount of time. Phileleftheros reports citing information that the UN have also drawn up scenarios for CBMs, which could be promoted along with diplomatic efforts to bridge differences among parties during the period leading up to formal talks after Geneva. The paper writes that Turkey appears unwilling to discuss CBMs, in a bid to avoid the matter of Famagusta coming up.
Kathimerini reports citing information from the north that the Turkish side is quietly moving forward with plans to transform Varosha from a military to a residential area. The paper reports that Erdogan has already promised Turkish contractors who support his pre-election efforts that they will be involved in plans for Varosha, while Lebanese economic interests also appear to be tied to the project, as are Russian economic interests with the marina being built outside Famagusta.
Alithia reports on statements issued by AKEL leader Andros Kyprianou, who expressed concern for both Turkey’s unacceptable claim for two states but also the way in which Anastasiades will deal with Turkey’s intransigence. Kyprianou said Anastasiades is once again attempting to play a blame game, as he did in Crans-Montana, which resulting in the UN placing the weight of the responsibility for the collapse of negotiations on the GC side. Alithia reports that in response, government spokesman Kyriakos Koushos called on AKEL to avoid assigning blame for a potential impasse in Geneva onto Anastasiades in advance
In an interview with Haravgi, Kyprianou said AKEL is in contact with TC parties for the organisation of mobilisations on both sides ahead of the Geneva summit. Phileleftheros reports that Ankara has instructed authorities in the north to ramp up measures to quell any protests that could cast doubt on Turkey’s claims at the five-party meeting.
KEY ACTORS
Morton (UK)
>> There is no British plan or blueprint for Cyprob on the table, Britain only attempted to encourage both sides to show flexibility and a willingness for compromise
>> Both sides must take advantage of the opportunity presented by 5+1, since a potential failure will not benefit anyone
>> EU participation in Geneva up to UNSG
>> Principles of a federation and political equality are the points of departure for a comprehensive solution, but they are broad enough to allow for a series of tweaks
>> Solution that satisfies the concerns and interests of both sides can be found through creativity
>> Varosha must be returned to its lawful inhabitants under UN administration
>> Developments in Varosha are proof of the urgency of resuming settlement talks, since as long as the process remains at an impasse partition becomes an increasingly permanent reality
Cavusoglu (Turkey)
>> If agreement is reached on the matters of political equality and hydrocarbons, then 70% of the Cyprus problem would be solved
Akinci
>> Positive outcome at Geneva unlikely if both sides remain firm in their publicly-declared positions
>> GC side must convince all parties that it accepts political equality and Turkey and the north must return to UN parameters that foresee a BBF
>> At Crans-Montana, Turkey and TC side were ready to be flexible in view of reaching a solution agreement, but Anastasiades was not ready to take final step
>> Collapse of Crans-Montana and new TC ‘elections’ brought new circumstances: TC side and Turkey are pursuing a two-state solution which will lead nowhere, while the GC side appears to still be unwilling to fully accept all elements of political quality
>> Only way forward is a BBF, for which in-depth negotiations are no longer necessary since all matters on the table have matured through the years
Kyprianou (AKEL)
>> Both Turkey’s unacceptable claim for two states but also the way in which Anastasiades will deal with Turkey’s intransigence are sources of concern
>> Anastasiades once again attempting to play a blame game, as he did in Crans-Montana, which resulted in the UN placing the weight of responsibility for the collapse of talks on the GC side
New guide on Cyprus problem talks published by CDF
Alithia, Phileleftheros
Negotiations Process
OVERVIEW
The Cyprus Dialogue Forum (CDF) has launched a new online guide detailing the history and current developments of Cyprus problem negotiations, the papers report.
The guide, funded by the EU, was designed with the aim to support parties in dialogue at all levels, and is structured around six basic chapters which include governance and power sharing, territory, property, economic matters, EU matters, and security and guarantees, Alithia reports. The guide includes a chronology of main events since 1930, information on the negotiation process, publicly available original documents (such as previous plans, convergences, agreements, resolutions, and so on), and a mapping of developments as regards the principles and solution framework of the Cyprus problem, the paper adds.
The numerous documents available through the guide include the UN Secretary General’s (UNSG) 2017 report that deals with the negotiations held between 2015-2017, Alithia notes. The guide also points readers to a UN Digital Library that hosts Security Council resolutions for Cyprus, and hosts documents such as the 1959 London and Zurich Agreements and the Constitution of the Republic of Cyprus.
The guide allows the public to browse an overview of past convergences and matters that are still pending, with Alithia highlighting the importance of the guide being launched a few weeks ahead of the new UN initiative that will kick off this month with the informal five-party meeting in Geneva.
Alithia reports that the guide notes that negotiations have been ongoing for over five decades, while talks have always been top-down, non-transparent and competitive. The guide adds according to the paper that with a lack of a safety net and deadlock breaking mechanisms, the formal process starts and stops and progress made is limited in terms of an outcome.
An op-ed in Phileleftheros highlights the importance of the guide’s attempt to order and structure all documents, agreements and solution frameworks that have been tabled across the history of Cyprus problem negotiations, and to make this publicly available. The piece notes that the guide was two years in the making by the CDF, an umbrella organisation consisting of political, labour and business bodies from both communities in Cyprus. The op-ed notes that the guide is addressed to those who seek correct information on how Cyprus problem processes have developed across the years, and provides quick and easy access to history of the Cyprus problem.