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Main News
Anastasiades to tackle Geneva summit creatively, Koushos says
Alithia, Haravgi, Kathimerini, Phileleftheros
Negotiations Process
OVERVIEW
In an interview with Haravgi, government spokesman Kyriakos Koushos said President Nicos Anastasiades will be going to the informal five-party summit to be held in Geneva on April 27-29 fully prepared and determined to participate creatively and constructively, which will work to keep the possibility of a negative outcome at bay.
Koushos said that unlike the positions held by Turkey and the TC side, the GC side’s positions are in absolute harmony with UN parameters, adding that the GC side will be ready to clearly respond to any questions that may be posed by the UN. As such, he said, in the event that no progress is made, responsibility will not lie with the GC side.
Koushos said he agrees with the approach of Anastasiades and UN Secretary General (UNSG) Antonio Guterres, both of whom believe that if convergences are achieved on the six parameters of the Guterres Framework, progress will be made. He added that the GC side’s aims are clear: to secure a comprehensive, functional and viable solution based on UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions and EU principles and values, allowing the Republic of Cyprus to be transformed into a bizonal bicommunal federation (BBF) in line with the parameters confirmed during the Berlin meeting of November 2019.
Koushos added that EU participation in Geneva would be to the benefit of both sides, since Cyprus will remain an EU member state post-solution, noting that the EU also needs to make sure that a solution would create a state that can take decisions and participate in EU bodies without causing problems as regards their functionality. Koushos said Turkey’s refusal to allow the EU to participate only exposes Turkey, which will have to justify its positions to Brussels, especially at a time when Turkey is seeking a positive agenda with the EU.
Former Foreign Minister and member of the negotiating team Ioannis Kasoulidis told Phileleftheros in an interview that if Turkey sticks to its publicly-declared positions a positive outcome in Geneva is unlikely, noting that this is also recognised by the international community, which he said is showing a heightened interest in the Cyprus problem due to the broader regional situation. Kasoulidis said the international community along with the UN has decided to lower the bar of expectations in order to allow formal negotiations or even additional informal meetings to follow.
In Geneva, Kasoulidis said he does not expect that the solution framework will be clarified, noting that the informal summit will allow each side to table its positions and clarify whether it is willing to work toward a solution or not. He explained that even in the case of Turkey’s proposal for a two-state solution, it cannot simply table its ideas and implement them immediately, since that too would require discussion.
Kasoulidis also said that the GC side’s insistence on remaining faithful to UNSC resolutions and the Guterres Framework legitimises its refusal to not give in to efforts seeking to change UN parameters, and will also ensure that the GC side will not be to blame for a potential negative outcome. But overall, Kasoulides said, the aim is not to create conditions of assigning blame onto Turkey, but to secure a solution within UN parameters.
Phileleftheros reports that expectations for the informal Geneva summit remain low, given the divergent positions and aims that parties hold, though a bare minimum agreement will be sought allowing all sides to begin preparing for formal negotiations within a foreseeable horizon. Phileleftheros reports that with just over a week left before the summit, some are even hesitant to expect that common ground will be found. Beyond this, the paper reports that the larger picture of the summit will involve discussions on the solution framework, UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions, UN parameters and convergences, and the six points of the Guterres Framework. The paper adds that there are strong doubts that agreement will be found on all or some of these issues.
Phileleftheros reports that the GC side will travel to Geneva equipped with an already-prepared document detailing the proposal for a decentralised federation. The paper reports that both British and UN circles believe that the key lies in deciding on the degree of decentralisation, since it could provide a way of satisfying the Turkish side’s demand for sovereign equality to a certain extent.
Phileleftheros reports that the second day of the summit will be the most crucial, as following the joint meeting among all five parties set to take place during the first day, which will likely see all sides reiterate their known positions, the second day will see Guterres hold a series of bilateral or trilateral meetings, including a meeting between the two leaders, during which parties are expected to show more flexibility, allowing for common ground to be found. The outcome will emerge on the third day, following a second meeting among all parties.
Phileleftheros reports that in the event of a positive outcome in Geneva, Guterres could lay down a specific timeframe for formal negotiations to resume. The paper reports that this timeframe will likely be until early July, when Guterres is set to brief the UNSC on developments ahead of the scheduled process of renewing the UNFICYP mandate.
Alithia reports that there are three possible ways that the Geneva summit could play out. One scenario is that Turkey sticks to its demand for two states and sovereign equality, which is unacceptable for the GC side, leading the new process to a potential impasse, which could in turn lead Turkey to toughen its stance with new provocations in Varosha and the EEZ, and even launch attempts to either secure recognition for the north or even annex it. The paper writes that the second and best-case scenario is a continuation of talks from where they left off in Crans-Montana, though the paper notes that this seems unlikely in view of Turkey’s positions. The third scenario is a continuation of dialogue with new conditions, CBMs, and timeframes to be set by Guterres, and perhaps even a revision of the Guterres Framework. The paper writes that the British had promoted the third scenario as a way to avoid a new impasse.
Phileleftheros reports that the UN has launched discussions for the promotion of certain confidence-building measures (CBMs) ahead of the informal summit, with videoconferences already held on the matter between the UNSG’s special representative Elizabeth Spehar and the two sides’ chief negotiators. The paper reports that in addition to the agreement already reached as regards crossings, which will reopen once the epidemiological situation allows, also being discussed are matters such as crime and migration.
Phileleftheros also reports that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has upped the ante ahead of the summit, noting that his warning that he would not hesitate to send his ships in this direction served to send the message that either the GC side accepts Turkey’s demand for a two-state solution, or consequences will be faced.
KEY ACTORS
Koushos
>> Unlike positions of Turkey and TC side, GC side is fully in line with UN parameters and will therefore not bear the responsibility for a potential impasse
>> Anastasiades and UNSG believe that if convergences are achieved on the six parameters of the Guterres Framework progress will be made
>> GC aim is clear: comprehensive, functional and viable BBF solution based on UNSC resolutions and EU principles & values
>> EU participation in Geneva would benefit both sides; Turkey’s objections leave it exposed
Kasoulidis
>> If Turkey sticks to its publicly-declared positions a positive outcome in Geneva is unlikely
>> International community & UN have decided to lower the bar of expectations in order to allow formal negotiations or even additional informal meetings to follow
>> GC side’s insistence on sticking to UNSC resolutions & Guterres Framework legitimises its refusal of changes to UN parameters, and will also ensure that the GC side will not be to blame for a potential negative outcome
>> Aim is not to create conditions of assigning blame onto Turkey, but to secure a solution within UN parameters